水资源与水工程学报

文章摘要

RAN Yanping,HE Wansheng,LEI Xuhui,XIA Hongming.应用灰色GM(1.1)模型及其改进模型预测渭河天水段水质Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering[J].,2011,22(5):

应用灰色GM(1.1)模型及其改进模型预测渭河天水段水质

Application of GM( 1, 1 ) model and improved model to predict the water Quality of Weihe River in Tianshui section

DOI：10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2011.05.196

中文关键词: 水质预测新陈代谢GM(1.1)模型灰色理论渭河

英文关键词: water quality prediction information renewal GM(1 1) model gray theory Weihe river

基金项目:甘肃省教育厅基金资助项目，甘肃省校内基金资助项目

Author Name	Affiliation
RAN Yanping,HE Wansheng,LEI Xuhui,XIA Hongming	RAN Yanping,HE Wansheng,LEI Xuhui,XIA Hongming(Department of Mathematics and statistics,Tianshui Normal University,Tianshui 741000,China)

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中文摘要:

利用灰色GM(1.1)模型、残差修正GM(1.1)模型预测2004至2010年渭河对天水段水质污染物时发现,二者对于某些污染物预测精度不高,而且残差修正GM(1.1)模型预测精度未必一定高于GM(1.1)模型.在这种情形下,应用新陈代谢GM(1.1)模型,预测未来五年渭河水质的变化及其水质污染物突变的时刻.分析结果表明:新陈代谢GM(1.1)模型有助于提高预测精度和预测的可靠性.

英文摘要:

Appling GM(1,1) model and its residual modified model to predict the density of pollutants in Weihe's water in Tianshui from 2004 to 2010,the prediction accuracy of latter is not higher than that of former and the accuracy of both is lower to some pollutants.In this situation,information renewal GM(1,1) is used to forecast Weihe's water quality and mutant moments of pollutants in the next five years.The results of analysis indicated that the informat ion renewal GM(1,1) predicting model could obviously impr...

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