文章摘要
ZHU Xiaoqin,ZHU Xinguo,LIN Fangcun.基于混沌优化GMDH网络的月降水量预测Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering[J].,2011,22(3):
基于混沌优化GMDH网络的月降水量预测
Monthly precipitation prediction of GMDH network based on chaos optimum
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2011.03.129
中文关键词: 降水量  GMDH  混沌  月降水量预测
英文关键词: precipitation  GMDH  chaos  prediction of monthly precipitation  
基金项目:
Author NameAffiliation
ZHU Xiaoqin,ZHU Xinguo,LIN Fangcun ZHU Xiaoqin1,ZHU Xinguo2,LIN Fangcun2(1.Water Conservancy Project Management Office of Hongze Lake of Jiangsu Province,Hongze 223100,China,2.Ningbo Rural Water Management Division,Ningbo 315000,China) 
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中文摘要:
      为提高降水量预测的精确度,介绍了一种基于混沌优化的GMDH网络预测方法,该方法利用混沌优化算法全局搜索GMDH网络的初始权值,并利用优化后的GMDH网络建立预测模型对月降水量进行预测.结果表明:该方法能加快GMDH网络结构稳定的速度,使算法快速收敛到全局最优解,对月降水量的动态预报具有一定的实用价值.
英文摘要:
      This paper introduced a GMDH network prediction method based on Chaos optimum,in order to increase the accurate of precipitation forecast.It used chaos optimum method to globally search GMDH network's initial weight value,and applied the method to predict monthly precipitation.The simulation results showed that the method can accelerrate the stabilization of GMDH network's structure,converge to the global optimal solution quickly and has some practical value for dynamic forecast of monthly precipitation.
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