水资源与水工程学报

文章摘要

LU Kuifeng,Xiong Heigang,Mao Jing,Xia Qianrou.两种不同时间序列模型在地下水动态变化预测中的比较研究Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering[J].,2011,22(1):

两种不同时间序列模型在地下水动态变化预测中的比较研究

Comparative study on two different time series model in forecast of groundwater dynamic change

DOI：10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2011.01.001

中文关键词: 地下水时间序列模型地下水动态奇台绿洲

英文关键词: ground water time series model groundwater dynamic change Qitai oasis

基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(40771194); 北京市属高等学校人才强教计划资助项目(PHR200906125)资助

Author Name	Affiliation
LU Kuifeng,Xiong Heigang,Mao Jing,Xia Qianrou	LU Kuifeng1,3,Xiong Heigang2,Mao Jing1,Xia Qianrou1,3(1.Institute of Resources and Environment Science,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,China,2.Department of Arts & Science,Beijing Union University,Beijing 100083,3.Key Laboratory of oasis Ecology of Ministry of Education,China)

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中文摘要:

运用季节性叠加趋势模型、季节周期-ARMA组合模型对奇台绿洲地下水位动态变化进行了分析和预测,并通过了后验差检验。结果表明:两种时间序列模型均适合对地下水动态变化的预测,后验差比值c和小误差频率p分别为(0.22、0.99)和(0.21、1)。但经过综合对比,季节周期-ARMA组合模型的预测精度更高。应用其对井灌区2005-2015年水位埋深进行预测,未来10年中,地下水位埋深以年均1.18 m的速度下降,应及时加以控制。

英文摘要:

Using seasonal trends superposition model,seasonal cycle-ARMA model odd combination,dynamic changes of Qitai Oasis groundwater was analyzed and forecasted,and adopted after test.the results show that the two time series models are suitable for the prediction of groundwater dynamics,a posteriori error ratio c and the frequency of small errors p were(0.22,0.99) and(0.21,1) respectively.However,after comparison of the overall combination the seasonal cycle-ARMA model has higher prediction accuracy.Application ...

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