Page 67 - 《水资源与水工程学报》2024年第6期
P. 67

!35 "!6 #                         & ' ( ) & * + , -                               Vol.35No.6
               2024 $ 12 %              JournalofWaterResources&WaterEngineering                 Dec.,2024

            DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2024.06.07


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              3IJKL:TV213.4;X826   MNOPQ:A    MRSL:1672643X(2024)06006312

              AssessmentandearlywarningofwaterecologicalsecurityinShanxiProvince
                                  from thesustainabilitytransitionperspective

                                       GUOXiaojia,LIUZhichao,WANGRuixiang
                             (CollegeofGeographicalSciences,ShanxiNormalUniversity,Taiyuan030031,China)
              Abstract:ShanxiProvinceiscurrentlyinthecriticalperiodofsustainabilitytransition.Scientificallyassessing
              thecurrentstatusofwaterecologicalsecurityisconducivetosocioeconomicdevelopmentandecologicalcivili
              zationconstruction ,whichinturncanprovidestrongwatersupportforsustainabilitytransition.Weestablished
              anassessmentsystembasedonthe“pressure-state-function-response”(PSFR)model.Thenthecoeffi
              cientofvariationmethod,couplingcoordinationdegreemodelandgreyrelationalmodelwerecombinedtoin
              vestigatethespatiotemporalpatternevolutioncharacteristicsandinfluencingfactorsofwaterecologicalsecurity
              inShanxiProvincefrom2007to2021 ,fromaspectsofwaterecologicalpressure,waterecologicalstate,water
              ecologicalfunctionandwaterecologicalresponse.Meanwhile,backpropagation(BP)neuralnetworkmodel
              wasusedtoconducttheearlywarninganalysisofwaterecologicalsecurityinShanxiProvince.Theresults
              showthatthecomprehensiveindexofwaterecologicalsecurityinShanxiProvincehasincreasedfrom0.2949
              to0.7384,andthesouthcentralregionissuperiortothenorthernregionfromspatialperspective.Thecom
              prehensiveindexofeachsubsystemshowsafluctuatingupwardtrend ,andthedegreeofcouplingcoordination
              hasimprovedfromquasicoordinationtogoodcoordination ,withthecentralregionbetterthanthesouthernand
              northernregions.Themaininfluencingfactorsofwaterecologicalsecurityare NDVI,proportionofagricultural
              wateruseandsoon.Theprovince’swaterecologicalsecuritylevelwillbeinasafeconditionfrom2022to
              2030.Theresearchresultscanprovideatheoreticalsupportforthedevelopmentofsustainabilitytransition,as
              wellasmanagementofwaterecologicalsecurityandecologicalenvironmentinShanxiProvince.
              Keywords:waterecologicalsecurity;sustainabilitytransition;pressure-state-function-response(PSFR)
              model;backpropagation(BP)neuralnetwork;ShanxiProvince


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