Page 67 - 《水资源与水工程学报》2024年第6期
P. 67
!35 "!6 # & ' ( ) & * + , - Vol.35No.6
2024 $ 12 % JournalofWaterResources&WaterEngineering Dec.,2024
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2024.06.07
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3IJKL:TV213.4;X826 MNOPQ:A MRSL:1672643X(2024)06006312
AssessmentandearlywarningofwaterecologicalsecurityinShanxiProvince
from thesustainabilitytransitionperspective
GUOXiaojia,LIUZhichao,WANGRuixiang
(CollegeofGeographicalSciences,ShanxiNormalUniversity,Taiyuan030031,China)
Abstract:ShanxiProvinceiscurrentlyinthecriticalperiodofsustainabilitytransition.Scientificallyassessing
thecurrentstatusofwaterecologicalsecurityisconducivetosocioeconomicdevelopmentandecologicalcivili
zationconstruction ,whichinturncanprovidestrongwatersupportforsustainabilitytransition.Weestablished
anassessmentsystembasedonthe“pressure-state-function-response”(PSFR)model.Thenthecoeffi
cientofvariationmethod,couplingcoordinationdegreemodelandgreyrelationalmodelwerecombinedtoin
vestigatethespatiotemporalpatternevolutioncharacteristicsandinfluencingfactorsofwaterecologicalsecurity
inShanxiProvincefrom2007to2021 ,fromaspectsofwaterecologicalpressure,waterecologicalstate,water
ecologicalfunctionandwaterecologicalresponse.Meanwhile,backpropagation(BP)neuralnetworkmodel
wasusedtoconducttheearlywarninganalysisofwaterecologicalsecurityinShanxiProvince.Theresults
showthatthecomprehensiveindexofwaterecologicalsecurityinShanxiProvincehasincreasedfrom0.2949
to0.7384,andthesouthcentralregionissuperiortothenorthernregionfromspatialperspective.Thecom
prehensiveindexofeachsubsystemshowsafluctuatingupwardtrend ,andthedegreeofcouplingcoordination
hasimprovedfromquasicoordinationtogoodcoordination ,withthecentralregionbetterthanthesouthernand
northernregions.Themaininfluencingfactorsofwaterecologicalsecurityare NDVI,proportionofagricultural
wateruseandsoon.Theprovince’swaterecologicalsecuritylevelwillbeinasafeconditionfrom2022to
2030.Theresearchresultscanprovideatheoreticalsupportforthedevelopmentofsustainabilitytransition,as
wellasmanagementofwaterecologicalsecurityandecologicalenvironmentinShanxiProvince.
Keywords:waterecologicalsecurity;sustainabilitytransition;pressure-state-function-response(PSFR)
model;backpropagation(BP)neuralnetwork;ShanxiProvince
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