Page 40 - 《水资源与水工程学报》2023年第4期
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3 6                      & ' ( ) & * + , -                 2023 $

                 CDDandCWD,respectively;whereasSASMI(southAsiansummermonsoonindex)andPDO(Pacific
                 decadaloscillation )werethesecondarydrivingfactorsofCDDandCWDrespectively.
                 Keywords:continuousextremeprecipitation;spatiotemporalchange;climaticdriver;random forest
                 method ;theJialingRiverBasin
                                                               ‘  [17] ¦®h, 巜Áà^p|˜@Qio CDD
            1 ./01
                                                               ÿEìý­, »ÁànÛÏПòóìí。€Þß
                 ˆì£@ode¼@、 ÏÐB@CDâã·¸þ                        ST®ù=Î, §g­O{|#ÌST•d®ùK
            ÿ&‚^®ý­, ¦´@AS)&ýÞß|±^Ê                           CDD、CWD^{|Wù, >kabˆìl×ó£@
                       [1]                                                                 [18]
            у„&¼        。ÞßSTU.9K/§deˆì£                      ^‚£]IÅ。«Y,Shi ‘               ®h MEI(multi
            @YZWo '8UV, I¨@CD·¸ê5, s†                          variateENSO index ) W AMO(Atlanticmultidecadal
            e'¼ÐØR, ¬&Ÿ #$8B•–W“Š‹Œ'                           oscillation ) Q  Í · z y ž ! E Í Á à CDDW
              [2]                                              CWD^UVœ}。
            ~    。î)…Ì•, &ý§ôàˆì£@UV±~o
            IZ;<, /¢'xSTUVڔB®ùý°"x                               €xyˆì×ól£@œÑ=Î, iÿ;<§
            (ExpertTeam onClimateChangeDetectionandIndi       g­‡l;<、Mann-Kendall ÚÛ、Sen’s F ‘
                                                               =p; €£]IÅ·1=Î, ‚'xaIÛ^‡l
            ces ,ETCCDI) ^;<Ný±þÝïl,ETCCDI @£
                                                                                                 [15-16]
            @vZ、 ±'ˆì£@( Y±I 1d £@) Wˆì×ó                      {|·1, ñÿü)§IÅ^£]·1                     。¾‘
            l£@‘=ζLo 11 †®ù             [3] 。oºÛ‹, ˆì         L, deˆì×ól£@ÝåÜÁvwKÞßST
                                                               UV‘§&IÅab, ïihûY^²³lW˜¼
            ×ól£@þÿòóâ8、 ôó.¬I^œÑ, o
                                                [4]            Kl, a ^‡l{|·1IÎ</ST£]³
            de@á•W8B•–^abk?_`                     。ˆì×
                                                               à  [19-20] 。ôó, ¬ìYxy§IÅ»>ý­^a
            ól£@¨©×óÈӅù(continuouswetdays,
                                                               b, }žÿ.>kˆì×ól£@^‚ÔÃIÅ,
            CWD) W × ó Ï Ð … ù (continuousdroughtdays,
                                                               ?/Á•[”uÕ%&Ö×。
            CDD) 膮ù, Ký·kÝ5¢ÿ、 \£@^±
                                                                   ÝÒ·êM´8·de¢ÎT±I、 Ý Z±
            8…ù, ´zZ£@òóœ}^|ÆUZ。*ï}S
                                                               X^ùd, ¦´CÄ0à¼@W' ^&‚ÛDÁ。
            )ÏȜ}z,CWDW CDD,Kde¼@WÏÐÉ
                                                               ÝÞßSTUVab, j¡•deˆì£@ÉwE
                              [5-6]
            w^'8|W‡7              。«Y, áZW¢Z£@Z                                      [21]
                                                               §, ¼ÐØR¦âÿ'8             。*t, t3‚@;
            8NOtŸŠJ8ÏЃ„, ž£@ZòóEìµQ
                                                               <、 €UW\N‘=η1de£@UVœ}, ñÿ
            `Û¼@, s†e'4@、 'Rd‘ì8ØR                  [7] 。I                                       [22-23]
                                                               ;<@ˆì×ól£@=α~·1                       。'x
            +, <deˆì×ó£@UVœ}B/¨Iode
                                                               +, u;<Ÿ‹î#Ì·1 1960—2019 •ÝÒ·d
                                               [8-9]
            STØRÑÒ͐WSTOï)“_`                      。
                                                               e CDDW CWD^âãUV, <ˆì×ól£@
                 *t, ÿ|ˆì×ól£@^;<§@Þß、 I
                                                               œ}, J­ Pearson {|·1W²³ŽG=p, @a
            +W ! " ‘ é Z ^ CDD W CWD œ } · 1 h
                                                               IÛW§IÛ=Îxyˆì×ól£@^ST£]
              [10-11]
            '       。„ ž ! Û ‹,1961—2016• ^ CDDW
                                                               IÅ, ÎN?deˆìST͐WS)þØOØu
            CWD5%—£;<, !ïih˜_^ãkj, ¦
                                                               Õ%&Ö×。
            ÿ&ý@œ、 Âý¶ràWdeéZoˆì×ól
                               [12-14]                        2 §¨¥()./3_
            £@}¶o·1;<               。K+>â, ˆì×ól
            £@^abIŦ´&ý§òó|±KâU^ƒ„                             2.1 DE“m²
            &¼, ¼@@ÜÁIÛWÞßSTIÛè=ÎÛx                                ÝÒ·Dxæçðè, Ïd8‡ 1120km, de
                                                                                     2
                                                                                 4
            y CDDW CWDâãUV^£]IÅ                [15] 。€ÜÁ       ÎT ? 15.98×10 km, . x 102°E~109°E、
            abIÛ=Î, ‚@•£@vZ、 •™5S–、 Á                         29°N~35°N&。deÁ¼、 KýG@îé`,
            &IÛWp|˜@Qi‘‚Åh', ‹î·1 ¡                            Á&kDI, •y£@·¸ê5, ßD‡[ޕv£
            IÛK CWD、CDD^{|l, Û</oˆì×ó                         @^ 65%  [24] 。M 1 ?ÝÒ·deS)„Ñ、 •5£
                                           [16]
            l£@^abOZ。«Y,Mei ‘                 ·1'i, Õ          @W@W·¸M。ÜM 1 µ…, ÝÒ·deúÑÈ
            ãäÁà CDDW CWD5K•£@Z%€{|;Liu                        Óà W ´ È Ó à, § • ™ 5 £ @ Z ? 433.6~
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