Page 28 - 《水资源与水工程学报》2022年第3期
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2 4                      & ' ( ) & * + , -                 2022 $

                                    \ 2  ÓÔbde^¡¬‚ÙÖ×ØqÕÖ×Øæçäl@Ž
                äW€ø          {Ɛ‘                 {Æ>è㶁±de                          v¡è㶁±de
                                           ln( μ )=14.9402+0.0009P-0.5093T           ln ( μ )=7.987
                  Q Max1d       GA
                                           ln( σ )=-0.3529                           ln ( σ )=-0.2572
                                           ln ( μ )=14.2945+0.0010P-0.4285T          ln( μ )=8.829
                  Q Max3d       GA
                                           ln( σ )=-0.4599                           ln( σ )=-0.3417
                                           μ=7.1893+0.0012P                          μ=9.147
                  Q Max7d      LOGNO
                                           ln( σ )=6.4591-0.4196T                    ln ( σ )=-0.3899
                                           μ=7.8274+0.0011P                          μ=9.631
                 Q             LOGNO
                   Max15d
                                           ln( σ )=-0.6807                           ln ( σ )=-0.5326
                                           ln( μ )=11.9019+0.00098P-0.2049T          ln ( μ )=10.100
                  Q             GA
                   Max1m
                                           ln( σ )=-0.9371                           ln ( σ )=-0.7258















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              ;~v½†Fe;"2Ü@ GCMduô                             Vž! \薉&¿Ÿ@>è㶰±Ð( Åc<
            40 †<Õdu®(2020-2099 !)  ¡|Ÿ}("                     ú &¿Ÿs 1~50a ud), íÝ 7 ¨M。
            }Wz“<ôïžÐ»²š, )¿v1!Á}                                Ÿ&¿Ÿ 20 “ 50a s@, vÝ 7o½†Fe
            Wz, ®½† RCP@ÁÞ¿‡þâkØÙ( Ý 5                        ;"2Ü®‹ì“ý‹ì>èã¶PÞ@°±ä
            (a)、5(c)), Šv1!Á<ô, ®½† RCP@ÁÞ                     Wez›˜™š:(1) ö÷ÙB€øý‹ì>
            ¿à«<ØÙ( Ý 5(b)、5(d))。v1/de                       è㶰±äWezÁÚk1‹ì>è㶰
            ùÁ€øŠ=, !Á}Wz“!Á<ôÁÞ¿à                            ±äWez。Ÿ Max1d €øs@, ‘&¿Ÿs 20a
                                                                                                       3
            «<ØÙ,2020-2100! RCP8.5@!Á<ôà                      |, è㶰±äWezs 7394.8m /s, Š
            á·1 RCP4.5 @!Á<ô( Ý 6)。                            RCP4.5 “ RCP8.5 uœ@>è㶰±äWez
                                                                                         3
            3.3 '1 ENE2ÕÖ×Økl¡¬TU                              ½s 4981.3Ü 4505.9m /s; ‘&¿Ÿs 50a
                                                                                                  3
                  ¡|Ÿ}Wz“<ô/deùÁÐ'g                         |, è㶰±äWezs 9224.8m /s, µ¡
            3.1 }!õ{Ɛ‘deo, žŸ!õB€øv¡                        RCP4.5 “RCP8.5 uœ@>è㶰±äWez
                                                                                        3
                                                  T             ½s5262.9 Ü4598.2m /s。 ö÷ÙÄÂ|¬
                                                    p =1
             ¡|Ÿ±nÏÐ μ“ σ , á6Ø8u∑ t
                                                 t= 1          ("°±äWez›+§ÃGá>, ®ƒ‰
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