Page 118 - 《水资源与水工程学报》2022年第2期
P. 118

1 1 4                    & ' ( ) & * + , -                 2022 $

            |œºdŠ‘pmÃa:。ÙÚhiœœ¿¹Š‘                             [10]ZHUYuejian,LUOYan.Precipitationcalibrationbased
            w9Š‘œºdŠ‘mÃp¡pÍÎ, *4³´                                onthefrequencymatchingmethod [J]. Weatherand
            I¹ˆ :                                                Forecasting ,2015,30(5):1109-1124.
                                                               [11]NOVAKDR,BAILEYC,BRILLKF,etal.Precipitati
                 ( 1) +‹³—"Y»ˆ¹hºp EMOS š›þ
                                                                   onandtemperatureforecastperformanceattheweather
            •9[‡:Thº¤™Š‘¿[r¬Š‘mà
                                                                   predictioncenter [J].WeatherandForecasting,2014,29
            ¡à¸oÁ´ŠŸp¡。ŽR0¿kš›i¾­T
                                                                   (3):489-504.
            š›ØŸÚ²p¤™, š³š›D³Ûßà, až
                                                               [12]ZHAOTongtiegang,BENNETTJC,WANGQJ,etal.
            š›ˆé†Gڞì9p#$, ƐœºUŠ‘m                                HowsuitableisquantilemappingforpostprocessingGCM
            ŸoppmÃ。                                                precipitationforecasts ?[J].JournalofClimate,2017,30
                 (2) +‹³—"Y»ˆ¹hºp EMOS š›þ                         (9):3185-3196.
            •9Š‘¿¹:Thº¤™Š‘¿[rŠ‘ ¡                             [13]ROBERTSONDE,SHRESTHADL,WANGQJ.Post
            ýG뼜§ÄŠ‘³´K3”©, ¬Š‘ ¡£                                processingrainfallforecastsfromnumericalweatherpredic
            ËD‹þ•9[‡:Thº¤™Š‘¿[R0p                                 tionmodelsforshorttermstreamflowforecasting[J].Hy
                                                                   drologyandEarthSystemSciencesDiscussions ,2013,10
            Š‘ ¡。¾ŽR0pŠÝ ¡ÓíÊk7Ý#
                                                                   (5):6765-6806.
            $, T™zuœA­K3…'ºdpŠ‘mýG。
                                                               [14]SCHEPENA,ZHAOTongtiegang,WANGQJ,etal.A
                 ( 3) þ•9Š‘¿¹:Thº¤™Š‘¿[
                                                                   Bayesianmodellingmethodforpostprocessingdailysub
            pR0ƐœK3…'ºdmŸýGŠ‘p#$a                                 seasonaltoseasonalrainfallforecastsfrom globalclimate
            žŽR0Š‘ ¡pýGëkAmqÄG|K                                 modelsandevaluationfor12Australiancatchments[J].
            3ÍÎ, ы¹ÕÄpU”’Ú, †G3…'ºd                              HydrologyandEarthSystem Sciences,2018,22(2):
            pԙ£Ë3‹¨Õ, ¿—¬Š‘ ¡k¨Õpý                                1615-1628.
            G뜹՝ƒ。                                           [15]GNEITINGT,RAFTERYAE,WESTVELDAH,etal.
                                                                   Calibratedprobabilisticforecastingusingensemblemodel
            }~LM:
                                                                   outputstatisticsand minimum CRPSestimation [J].
            [1] 6˲, Z Y, ù ©, ". /g¯û9ŠÝµfm‡
                                                                   MonthlyWeatherReview,2005,133(5):1098-1118.
               [J]. ‡t(äm‡,2020,10(2):19-29.
                                                               [16]BARANS,LERCHS.Combiningpredictivedistributions
            [2] éÇ1, J ò, Z (, ". H…ºUŠÝäåm‡[J]. Ø
                                                                   forthestatisticalpostprocessingofensembleforecasts
               •‡t%Ý,2016,27(5):534-549.
                                                                   [J].InternationalJournalofForecasting,2018,34(3):
            [3]LIWentao,DUANQingyun,WANGQJ.Factorsinfluen
                                                                   477-496.
               cingtheperformanceofregressionbasedstatisticalpostpro
                                                               [17] JPN, @]ç, >ʆ, ". ­ö°qÖĺUpÈ#
               cessingmodelsforshortterm precipitationforecasts[J].
                                                                   9ŠÝ&9¿ÍVܜhi[J]. ‡dÚÀ,2017,
               WeatherandForecasting,2019,34(6):2067-2084.
                                                                   36(6):507-517.
            [4] ½»£, Rÿ^, &0ª, ".GFS 9ºdŠÝpmÃ7
                                                               [18]SCHEUERER M.Probabilisticquantitativeprecipitation
               »Ž4F[J]. qU­“gU/(ä,2019,17(1):15-19.
                                                                   forecastingusingensemblemodeloutputstatistics [J].
            [5] ôÄ=, r ç, w ™, ". +‹«]>·žsÇ¿Y
                                                                   QuarterlyJournaloftheRoyalMeteorologicalSociety,
               p9ŠÝ&9¿ÍVÃ[J]. ‡t%Ý,2015,73(5):
                                                                   2014,140(680):1086-1096.
               952-964.
                                                               [19] J£Ç, &0æ, ZÿP, ". +´ÈA WRFš0i
            [6] â 7, ù ©, 6ËV.“ ¦•ý‘” k9ºUŠÝ­
                                                                   ¾qؕ[J]. -93%%Ý( ìí(%gaäå
               pؕ4F[J]. ‡t,2015,41(6):674-684.
                                                                   %),2016,49(4):349-354.
            [7] }Öw, Z¬), Q#¿, ". öւºUph'•Ž
                                                               [20] C+†, 66ö. +´ÈAºd-‡T„qžÑ‡d
               f;º{žŠÝ4F[J]. 3‡(%%Ý,2016,39(3):
                                                                   ŠÝ[J]. O^oÈ,2013,44(3):1-5+19.
               329-338.
                                                               [21]HAMILLTM,BATESGT,WHITAKERJS,etal.NO
            [8] @]ç, öêÞ, ñ », ". }´ÖĵŽ%ºUhÄR
                                                                   AA’ssecondgenerationglobalmediumrangeensemble
               •ŠÝR4F[J]. ‡t,2015,41(12):1503-1513.
                                                                   reforecastdataset [J].BulletinoftheAmericanMeteoro
            [9] J ò, aq¾, éÇ1. 9š0H…ºUŠÝpf;7
                                                                   logicalSociety ,2013,94(10):1553-1565.
               »Žäå4F&A[J]. ‡t%Ý,2018,76(4):493-510.
   113   114   115   116   117   118   119   120   121   122   123