Page 121 - 《水资源与水工程学报》2022年第1期
P. 121

!33 " ! 1 #                       & ' ( ) & * + , -                               Vol.33No.1
               2022 $ 2 %               JournalofWaterResources&WaterEngineering                 Feb.,2022

            DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2022.01.16


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                Jointdistributionofstrongwindandrainstorm inDonghuReservoirand
                                itsimpactonthedesignofdam crestelevation

                                                                                        1
                                                                      1
                                                      2
                                         1
                                CAIQilin,TUJinliang,WANGZhaoli,LAIChengguang
                  (1.SchoolofCivilEngineering&Transportation,SouthChinaUniversityofTechnology,Guangzhou510640,China;
                         2.GuangdongTechnologyCenterofWaterResourcesandHydropower,Guangzhou510635,China)
                 Abstract:Themainobjectiveofthisstudyistodiscussthejointdistributionofstrongwindandrainstorm
                 anditsimpactsonthedesignvalueofdamcrestelevation.TakingDonghuReservoirasthestudyobject ,
                 weconductedmarginaldistributionfittingbetweenmaximumwindspeedandthreesetsofrainfallseriesu
                 singGEV ,Gamma,andP- Ⅲ distributionrespectively.Basedonthejointprobabilitydistributionof
                 maximumwindspeedandrainfallseriesconstructedbythebinaryCopulafunctions ,thedesignvaluesof
                 windspeedandrainstorm of100yearreturnperiodwereestimatedandthecrestelevationofthemain
                 damwasrecheckedwhetheritmetthesafetyrequirements.Theresultsshowthattheannualmaximum
                 dailyrainfallpresentedasignificantupwardtrend(P <0.05),whereastheannualmaximum wind
                 speedfeaturedanonsignificantone ,andthemaximumrainfalleventonceoccurredatthesametimewith
                 themaximumwindevent.Asfortheencounteranalysis ,boththecalculatedvaluesofmaximum wind
                 speedandrainfallshowedaruleas “jointreturnperiod>univariatereturnperiod>cooccurrencere
                 turnperiod ”,ofwhichthevalueofmaximumwindspeedofjointreturnperiodwasonlyapproximately
                10% largerthanthatofunivariatereturnperiod.Theestimatedvalueofcrestelevationbasedonjointre
                 turnperiodwaslowerthantheactualvalueofthewavewall,indicatingthatthecrestelevationofthe
                 maindamcouldmeetthesafetyrequirementsoftheencounterofstrongwindandrainstorm (100yr).

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