Page 121 - 《水资源与水工程学报》2022年第1期
P. 121
!33 " ! 1 # & ' ( ) & * + , - Vol.33No.1
2022 $ 2 % JournalofWaterResources&WaterEngineering Feb.,2022
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2022.01.16
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BCDEF:TV62. 2 GHIJK:A GLMF:1672643X(2022)01011707
Jointdistributionofstrongwindandrainstorm inDonghuReservoirand
itsimpactonthedesignofdam crestelevation
1
1
2
1
CAIQilin,TUJinliang,WANGZhaoli,LAIChengguang
(1.SchoolofCivilEngineering&Transportation,SouthChinaUniversityofTechnology,Guangzhou510640,China;
2.GuangdongTechnologyCenterofWaterResourcesandHydropower,Guangzhou510635,China)
Abstract:Themainobjectiveofthisstudyistodiscussthejointdistributionofstrongwindandrainstorm
anditsimpactsonthedesignvalueofdamcrestelevation.TakingDonghuReservoirasthestudyobject ,
weconductedmarginaldistributionfittingbetweenmaximumwindspeedandthreesetsofrainfallseriesu
singGEV ,Gamma,andP- Ⅲ distributionrespectively.Basedonthejointprobabilitydistributionof
maximumwindspeedandrainfallseriesconstructedbythebinaryCopulafunctions ,thedesignvaluesof
windspeedandrainstorm of100yearreturnperiodwereestimatedandthecrestelevationofthemain
damwasrecheckedwhetheritmetthesafetyrequirements.Theresultsshowthattheannualmaximum
dailyrainfallpresentedasignificantupwardtrend(P <0.05),whereastheannualmaximum wind
speedfeaturedanonsignificantone ,andthemaximumrainfalleventonceoccurredatthesametimewith
themaximumwindevent.Asfortheencounteranalysis ,boththecalculatedvaluesofmaximum wind
speedandrainfallshowedaruleas “jointreturnperiod>univariatereturnperiod>cooccurrencere
turnperiod ”,ofwhichthevalueofmaximumwindspeedofjointreturnperiodwasonlyapproximately
10% largerthanthatofunivariatereturnperiod.Theestimatedvalueofcrestelevationbasedonjointre
turnperiodwaslowerthantheactualvalueofthewavewall,indicatingthatthecrestelevationofthe
maindamcouldmeetthesafetyrequirementsoftheencounterofstrongwindandrainstorm (100yr).
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