Page 66 - 《水资源与水工程学报》2024年第5期
P. 66
!35 "!5 # & ' ( ) & * + , - Vol.35No.5
2024 $ 10 % JournalofWaterResources&WaterEngineering Oct.,2024
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2024.05.08
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MNFOP:S423;TV11 QRSTU:A QVWP:1672643X(2024)05006211
Modelforcomprehensivedroughtmonitoringinnorthwest
Chinabasedonrandom forest
SONGLihui,ZHANGXin,DUChuanyu,ZONGHanxi
(SchoolofWaterConservancyandArchitecturalEngineering,NorthwestA&FUniversity,Yangling712100,China)
Abstract:NorthwestChinaisafflictedbyfrequentdroughtdisasters,soaccuratemonitoringofdrought
conditionsintheregionisofgreatsignificancetoagriculturalproductionandeconomicdevelopment.This
articleusesmeteorologicalstationdatafromJune2001toMay2020andmultisourceremotesensingdata
setsofprecipitation ,vegetation,soilandotherenvironmentalfactorsasdatasourcestoestablishacom
prehensivedroughtmonitoringmodelbasedonrandom forestalgorithm.Then,theapplicabilityofthe
modelinthenorthwestChinaisinvestigated.Theresultsshowthattheconsistencyrateofthedroughtlev
elsineachmonthofthestudyperiodbetweenthecomprehensivedroughtindex(CDI)outputbythe
modelandthemeteorologicalcomprehensivedroughtindex (MCI)isabove75%.Moreover,thecorrela
tioncoefficientsbetweenCDIandthestandardizedprecipitationindex(SPI3),CDIandthestandard
izedsoilmoistureindex(SSI1)ofthemeteorologicalstationsare0.318-0.726and0.173-0.433re
spectively ,bothreachingextremelysignificantlevels.Inaddition,CDIcanaccuratelyreflectthedevel
opmentofdroughtconditionsintypicaldroughteventsinthenorthwestregion.Thisstudyshowsthatthe
randomforestmethodisapplicabletothecomprehensivedroughtmonitoringinnorthwestChina.
Keywords:drought;monitoringmodel;randomforest(RF);multisourcedata;northwestChina
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