Page 66 - 《水资源与水工程学报》2022年第5期
P. 66
! 33 " ! 5 # & ' ( ) & * + , - Vol.33No.5
2022 $ 10 % JournalofWaterResources&WaterEngineering Oct.,2022
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2022.05.08
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HIJKL:TV213 MNOPQ:A MRSL:1672643X(2022)05006210
System dynamicssimulationanalysisofwaterresourcescarryingcapacityin
XinyuCityundertherigidconstraintofwaterresources
1,2
2
1,3,4
XIAOJie ,WENTianfu 1,3,4 ,CAIFulin,LIUXin
(1.JiangxiAcademyofWaterScienceandEngineering,Nanchang330029,China;2.CollegeofWaterConservancyand
HydropowerEngineering ,HohaiUniversity,Nanjing210024,China;3.ResearchCenterforWaterResourcesand
EcologicalEnvironmentofPoyangLake ,MinistryofWaterResources,Nanchang330029,China;4.Jiangxi
ProvincialKeyLaboratoryofWaterResourcesandEnvironmentofPoyangLake,Nanchang330029,China)
Abstract:Strengtheningtherigidconstraintofwaterresourcescaneffectivelyimprovetheperformanceof
waterresourcesintheregionalsocioeconomicdevelopment.TakingXinyuCityasanexample ,asystem
dynamicssimulationmodelfortherigidconstraintrequirementsofwaterresourcesisestablishedconsider
inglocalindustrialcharacteristics ,thenitisusedtopredictthechangingprocessoflocalwaterresources
carryingcapacityfrom2020to2035underfourschemes(i.e.thecurrentsituation,theeconomicdevel
opment,theresourceconservation,therigidconstraint).Theresultsshowthat,undertheschemeofrig
idconstraintofwaterresources ,theefficientwaterutilizationofindustriesareemphasized,especiallyin
dustrieswithhighwaterpollutionandconsumptionsuchassteelandphotovoltaic,andthesupply-de
mandratioofwaterresourceswillbe1.03in2035,whilethepollutionratioofbothCODandammonia
nitrogenwillbegreaterthan1.By2035,thecarryingcapacityoftotalpopulationandGDPinXinyuCity
6
9
canreach1.302×10 and557.86×10 yuan,respectively.Inthispaper,withthehelpofthesystem
dynamicsmodel,therigidconstraintschemewhichconsidersthewaterefficiencyandsocioeconomicde
velopmentcanrealizethebalancebetweenregionalwatersupplyanddemandwithmaximizedcarryingca
pacityofwaterresources.Thisstudyaimstoprovideaneffectivesupportfortheimplementationofthe
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