Page 81 - 《水资源与水工程学报》2022年第2期
P. 81

!33 " ! 2 #                       & ' ( ) & * + , -                               Vol.33No.2
               2022 $ 4 %               JournalofWaterResources&WaterEngineering                 Apr.,2022

            DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2022.02.10


                         2000-2019 n‡ˆ5 - %7 - ‰ŠŒ‘

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                 HIAJK:TV213.4;F326.11   LMNOP:A    LQRK:1672643X(2022)02007708

                          Researchonthecouplingandcoordinateddevelopmentof
                        water -energy-foodsystem inXinjiangduring2000-2019

                                                                1,3
                                                      2
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                                                                                2
                                     1,2
                        FENGMeiqing ,CHENYaning,JIAOLi ,DUANWeili,CHENShifeng
                  (1.CollegeofGeographyandTourism,XinjiangNormalUniversity,Urumqi830054,China;2.StateKeyLaboratoryof
                  DesertandOasisEcology ,XinjiangInstituteofEcologyandGeography,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Urumqi830011,
                       China;3.XinjiangLaboratoryofLakeEnvironmentandResourcesinAridZone,Urumqi830054,China)
                 Abstract:Water,energyandfoodarekeyelementsofsustainableregionaldevelopment.TakingXinjiang
                 AutonomousRegionasthestudyarea ,thecomprehensiveevaluationsystemofwater-energy-food(W
                 -E-F)isconstructed.ThecouplingcoordinationdegreemodelandthegreyGM(1,1)modelarea
                 doptedtoanalyzethecouplingcoordinationleveloftheW -E-Fsystemfrom2000to2019 ,andtopre
                 dictitsfuturedevelopmentduringtheperiodof2020-2031.Theresultsshowedthatthecomprehensive
                 evaluationindexofW -E-FsysteminXinjiangrosefrom0.39to0.61from2000to2019 ,showedan
                 overallupwardtrend ;thecouplingcoordinationdegreeincreasedfrom0.59to0.77,andthethreesub
                 systemswerecloselyrelatedbuttheoverallperformancefellintheintermediatelevelofcoordinateddevel
                 opment,whichisexpectedtodeveloptotheadvancedlevelin2025.Waterresourcessubsystemisstill
                 themainfactorthatrestrictsthecoordinateddevelopmentofW -E-Fsystem.Thelargeproportionof
                 agriculturalwaterresultsintheseverestructuralwatershortageinXinjiang.Inthefuture ,Xinjiang
                 shouldactivelyadjustthewaterusestructure ,improvetheutilizationefficiencyofwaterresources,opti
                 mizethegrainconsumptionstructure ,andenhancetheinternalcoordinationofthesystem.
                 Keywords:water-energy-food(W -E-F)system;evaluationindexsystem;couplingandcoordina
                 tion ;greyprediction;XinjiangAutonomousRegion

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