Page 81 - 《水资源与水工程学报》2022年第2期
P. 81
!33 " ! 2 # & ' ( ) & * + , - Vol.33No.2
2022 $ 4 % JournalofWaterResources&WaterEngineering Apr.,2022
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2022.02.10
2000-2019 n5 - %7 -
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HIAJK:TV213.4;F326.11 LMNOP:A LQRK:1672643X(2022)02007708
Researchonthecouplingandcoordinateddevelopmentof
water -energy-foodsystem inXinjiangduring2000-2019
1,3
2
1,2
2
1,2
FENGMeiqing ,CHENYaning,JIAOLi ,DUANWeili,CHENShifeng
(1.CollegeofGeographyandTourism,XinjiangNormalUniversity,Urumqi830054,China;2.StateKeyLaboratoryof
DesertandOasisEcology ,XinjiangInstituteofEcologyandGeography,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Urumqi830011,
China;3.XinjiangLaboratoryofLakeEnvironmentandResourcesinAridZone,Urumqi830054,China)
Abstract:Water,energyandfoodarekeyelementsofsustainableregionaldevelopment.TakingXinjiang
AutonomousRegionasthestudyarea ,thecomprehensiveevaluationsystemofwater-energy-food(W
-E-F)isconstructed.ThecouplingcoordinationdegreemodelandthegreyGM(1,1)modelarea
doptedtoanalyzethecouplingcoordinationleveloftheW -E-Fsystemfrom2000to2019 ,andtopre
dictitsfuturedevelopmentduringtheperiodof2020-2031.Theresultsshowedthatthecomprehensive
evaluationindexofW -E-FsysteminXinjiangrosefrom0.39to0.61from2000to2019 ,showedan
overallupwardtrend ;thecouplingcoordinationdegreeincreasedfrom0.59to0.77,andthethreesub
systemswerecloselyrelatedbuttheoverallperformancefellintheintermediatelevelofcoordinateddevel
opment,whichisexpectedtodeveloptotheadvancedlevelin2025.Waterresourcessubsystemisstill
themainfactorthatrestrictsthecoordinateddevelopmentofW -E-Fsystem.Thelargeproportionof
agriculturalwaterresultsintheseverestructuralwatershortageinXinjiang.Inthefuture ,Xinjiang
shouldactivelyadjustthewaterusestructure ,improvetheutilizationefficiencyofwaterresources,opti
mizethegrainconsumptionstructure ,andenhancetheinternalcoordinationofthesystem.
Keywords:water-energy-food(W -E-F)system;evaluationindexsystem;couplingandcoordina
tion ;greyprediction;XinjiangAutonomousRegion
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