Page 112 - 《水资源与水工程学报》2022年第2期
P. 112
!33 " ! 2 # & ' ( ) & * + , - Vol.33No.2
2022 $ 4 % JournalofWaterResources&WaterEngineering Apr.,2022
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2022.02.14
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HIAJK:TV213 LMNOP:A LQRK:1672643X(2022)02010807
Postprocessingmethodofnumericalensemblerainfallprediction
1,2
3
HAOFuliang ,WANGXu
(1.SchoolofHydraulicandEnvironmentalEngineering,ChangshaUniversityofScience&Technology,Changsha410114,China;
2.KeyLaboratoryofWater-SedimentSciencesandWaterDisasterPreventionofHunanProvince,Changsha410114,China;
3.SchoolofEnvironmentalScienceandEngineering,TianjinUniversity,Tianjin300072,China)
Abstract:UsingtherainfallpredictiondataoftheGlobalEnsembleForecastSystemfromApril1toSep
tember30,2017andtherainfallobservationdatafromthemeteorologicalstationsintheYalongRiverBa
sin,therainfallpredictiondatawascalibratedbytheensemblemodeloutputstatisticsbasedonthegener
alizedextremevaluedistribution ,andthecalibrationresultsobtainedfromtwomodelswerecomparedand
analyzed.Theresultsshowthattheensemblemembermeancalibrationmodelcaneffectivelyaddressthe
problemofrainfalloverestimation ,whichisalwaysthecasewiththeoriginalpredictionmodel.Further
more ,itspredictionresultissignificantlybetterthanthatoftheensemblemembercalibrationmodel,
whichislimitedbytheoverfittingproblemduetotheincreaseofmodelparameters,thusthelatterisnot
applicabletotherainfallpredictionoftheYalongRiverBasin.However ,theaccuracyoftheprediction
resultsoftheensemblemembermeancalibrationmodelvariessignificantlyindifferentbasinsandtendsto
underestimatethelargerainfallsinthebasin.Therefore,furtherresearchonthismethodshouldbecon
ductedtargetingatimprovingthepredictionaccuracyofextremerainfalls.
Keywords:ensembleforecastsystem;statisticalpostprocessingtechnology;rainfallprediction;bias
correction ;numericalmodellingform;theYalongRiverBasin
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