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季 劼, 王艳君, 姜 彤, 黄金龙, 苏布达, 翟建青.1980—2020年登陆中国热带气旋短时强降水特征分析水资源与水工程学报[J].,2025,36(5):102-111
1980—2020年登陆中国热带气旋短时强降水特征分析
Characteristics of short-duration heavy rainfall associated with landfalling tropical cyclones in China from 1980 to 2020
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2025.05.12
中文关键词:  登陆热带气旋  生命周期  短时强降水  降水时数  降水强度  时空分布  变化趋势
英文关键词:tropical cyclone landfall  lifetime  short-duration heavy rainfall  precipitation duration  precipitation intensity  spatiotemporal distribution  variation trend
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(42271081);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2024J037)
作者单位
季 劼1,2,6, 王艳君1,2,6, 姜 彤3,4, 黄金龙1,2,6, 苏布达6, 翟建青1,2,5 (1.南京信息工程大学 地理科学学院 江苏 南京 210044 2.南京信息工程大学 灾害风险管理研究院 江苏 南京 2100443.江苏省气候风险模拟与城乡智慧治理重点建设实验室 江苏 南京 210013 4.江苏第二师范学院 地理科学学院江苏 南京 210013 5.中国气象局国家气候中心 北京 100081 6.南京信息工程大学 气候系统预测与变化应对全国重点实验室 江苏 南京 210044) 
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中文摘要:
      中国是全球受热带气旋影响最严重的国家之一,其引发的强降水常造成重大社会经济损失。基于中国气象局逐小时降水观测和热带气旋最佳路径数据,对1980—2020年登陆中国热带气旋及其短时强降水特征的分析表明:登陆热带气旋平均生命周期显著缩短,年均登陆中国大陆7.17个,登陆地点呈北移趋势;短时强降水量和降水时数分别以3.4 mm/10a和0.1 h/10a的速率明显增加,降水强度略有增强;短时强降水强度在华南沿海显著增强,而长江干流以北至渤海湾区域的降水时数增长尤为明显;短时强降水日内峰值出现在00:00,增速最快时段为03:00,沿海地区最大降水量多发生在凌晨(00:00—06:00),内陆地区则集中在下午(13:00—19:00)。
英文摘要:
      China is one of the countries most severely affected by tropical cyclones globally, with the associated heavy rainfall often causing significant socioeconomic losses. Based on hourly precipitation observations from the China Meteorological Administration and best-track tropical cyclone data, an analysis of tropical cyclones making landfall in China and their short-duration heavy rainfall characteristics from 1980 to 2020 were analyzed. The results reveal that the average lifetime of tropical cyclones shortened significantly, with an average of 7.17 making landfall in China’s mainland annually, and their landfall locations showed a northward shift. Both the amount and duration of short-duration heavy rainfall increased markedly, at rates of 3.4 mm/10a and 0.1 h/10a, respectively, while precipitation intensity only intensified slightly. The intensity of short-duration heavy rainfall strengthened notably along the southern coast, whereas the increase in precipitation duration was particularly evident from the northern reach of the Yangtze River to the Bohai Bay region. The peak occurrence of short-duration heavy rainfall within a day was at 00:00, with the fastest increase observed at 03:00. Coastal areas experienced their maximum rainfall mostly in the early morning (00:00-06:00), while inland areas saw concentrated rainfall in the afternoon (13:00-19:00).
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