• ▶ 2008-2024年被中国情报信息研究所评价中心评为“中国科技核心期刊”
  • ▶ 2019-2024年连续三届被中国科学院文献情报中心中国科学引文数据库CSCD(核心库)收录
  • ▶ 2021、2023年入编北京大学图书馆《中文核心期刊要目总览》
  • ▶ 2020-2024连续四年入选《科技期刊世界影响力指数(WJCI)报告》
喻 丹, 黄俊雄, 李忠安, 谈 新, 董晓华, 王亦洲, 魏 冲, 彭 涛, 刘 冀.基于极端降水指数法的极端降水事件致灾风险评估水资源与水工程学报[J].,2025,36(5):74-83
基于极端降水指数法的极端降水事件致灾风险评估
Disaster risk assessment of extreme precipitation events based on extreme precipitation indices
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2025.05.09
中文关键词:  极端降水  主成分分析  游程理论  非支配排序  致灾风险  府澴河流域
英文关键词:extreme precipitation  principal component analysis  run theory  non-dominated sorting  disaster risk  the Fuhuan River Basin
基金项目:湖北省自然科学基金项目(2024AFD212); 国家自然科学基金项目(42401030、52109058)
作者单位
喻 丹1,2, 黄俊雄3, 李忠安3, 谈 新3, 董晓华1,2, 王亦洲1,2, 魏 冲1,2, 彭 涛1,2, 刘 冀1,2 (1.三峡大学 水利与环境学院 湖北 宜昌443000 2.三峡大学 三峡库区生态环境教育部工程研究中心湖北 宜昌 443000 3.湖北省孝感市水文水资源勘测局 湖北 孝感 432000) 
摘要点击次数: 705
全文下载次数: 178
中文摘要:
      为揭示极端降水的致灾特征及其风险空间分布,以长江中游府澴河流域为研究区,基于1961—2022年逐日网格降水数据,计算了9个极端降水指数(PRCPTOT、Rx1day、Rx5day、SDII、R10、R20、R95p、R99p、CWD)。综合运用Mann-Kendall突变及趋势检验、滑动T检验与Theil-Sen斜率估计分析其时空演变特征,通过主成分分析提取极端降水综合特征指标,并结合游程理论识别极端降水事件的致灾历时与强度特征,进一步采用非支配排序法对流域致灾风险进行分级评估。结果表明:除Rx5day外,其他极端降水指数均呈显著上升趋势,其中强度指数在空间上呈现“下游增强、上游减弱”的分异格局;前两个主成分累计方差贡献率超过77%,能够有效整合极端降水的强度、频率与持续性信息,显著提升多维特征的表达效率;下游区域表现出“高强度-长历时”的极端降水灾害模式,致灾风险尤为突出;致灾风险主要受Rx5day、R95p与R20等表征的高频次、累积型的中强度降水的影响。构建的评估方法能综合反映极端降水的持续性与累积性致灾影响,为流域尺度洪涝灾害的精细化风险评估与防灾减灾决策提供科学支撑。
英文摘要:
      To reveal the disaster-causing characteristics of extreme precipitation and its spatial risk distribution, a case study of the Fuhuan River Basin in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River was conducted. Based on daily gridded precipitation data from 1961 to 2022, nine extreme precipitation indices (PRCPTOT, Rx1day, Rx5day, SDII, R10, R20, R95p, R99p, and CWD) were calculated. Then, their spatiotemporal evolution characteristics were analyzed by Mann-Kendall abrupt change and trend tests, the moving T-test, and Theil-Sen estimator. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to extract comprehensive indicators of extreme precipitation, run theory was employed to identify the disaster-causing duration and severity of extreme precipitation events, and non-dominated sorting was applied to classify risk levels in the basin. The results indicate that except Rx5day, all indices showed an increasing trend over time, with intensity indices exhibiting a spatial pattern of “increase in the downstream but decrease in the upstream”. The cumulative contribution rate of the first two principal components exceeded 77%, demonstrating an excellent performance on characterizing multidimensional features of extreme precipitation with integrated information of severity, frequency, and persistence. A “high-severity-long-duration” disaster pattern was pronounced in the downstream region, resulting in prominent risk. The disaster-causing risk was primarily influenced by frequent and accumulative moderate-severity precipitation processes characterized by indices such as Rx5day, R95p, and R20. The assessment framework developed in this study comprehensively reflects the prolonged and cumulative effects of disasters caused by extreme precipitation, providing a scientific support for watershed-scale flood risk management.
查看全文  查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器
关闭